So I made my own version of Shoal's tables:

Staring at this table for a while, there are a few possibilities we can eliminate. If one of us is lynched and doesn't turn out to be the demon, it always makes sense to nightkill the other remaining mafia member--or, equivalently, it never makes sense to nightkill michaelblume. This results in the kill assigner always winning, regardless of whether they're Mafia or Demon.

After removing those possibilities:

So the win probabilities depending on who we lynch are, in fact, all equal:

lynch michael: 2 mafia win, 2 coinflip -> 75% win

lynch Shoal: 3 mafia win, 1 demon -> 75% win (lose when jalapeno_dude is demon)

lynch Tamien: 3 mafia win, 1 demon -> 75% win (lose when jalapeno_dude is demon)

lynch jalapeno_dude: 3 mafia win, 1 demon -> 75% win (lose when Tamien is demon)

It's true that lynching michaelblume prevents the demon, whoever they are, from winning immediately, but it means that if I pick wrong at night there's a COINflip to decide the game.

However, these are the probabilities if you have no knowledge other than that one of us is possessed. I have more information that that, because I don't know myself to be possessed. If that meant I was in fact certain not be possessed, I could eliminate the "jalapeno_dude demon" part of the table. That gives the following win probabilities:

jalapeno_dude not demon

lynch michael: 2 mafia win, 1 coinflip -> 83.3% win

lynch Shoal: 3 mafia win -> 100% win

lynch Tamien: 3 mafia win -> 100% win

lynch jalapeno_dude: 2 mafia win, 1 demon win -> 66% win (lose when Tamien is demon)

This means I would prefer to lynch one of you, which would guarantee a win, and strongly prefer not to get myself lynched, which would drop our win chance to 2/3. This is the strategy I came up with before. Of course it also guarantees a win for me if I'm possessed, which I'm not.

Of course, I don't really know I'm not the demon--it could be that I'm possessed and don't know it. Regardless, because it doesn't matter who we lynch in the zero-knowledge case I should prefer to vote for Shoal or Tamien if knowing that I haven't been told I'm possessed

makes me even a little bit less likely to be possessed, which I think it does.

I can do the same thing for you guys, too. Shoal, if you know you're not possessed, your probabilities are:

lynch michael: 1.5 mafia win, 1.5 coinflip -> 75% win

lynch Shoal: 2 mafia win, 1 demon -> 66% win (lose when jalapeno_dude is demon)

lynch Tamien: 2 mafia win, 1 demon -> 66% win (lose when jalapeno_dude is demon)

lynch jalapeno_dude: 2 mafia win, 1 demon -> 66% win (lose when Tamien is demon)

You want to keep all of the mafia going alive into tonight so the demon can't win outright if they're the kill assigner.

Tamien, if you know you're not possessed, your probabilities are:

lynch michael: 1.5 mafia win, 1.5 coinflip -> 75% win

lynch Shoal: 2 mafia win, 1 demon -> 66% win

lynch Tamien: 2 mafia win, 1 demon -> 66% win

lynch jalapeno_dude: 3 mafia win -> 100% win

You want to kill me because then you're guaranteed to win regardless of whether or not you're possessed.

Interestingly, all three of us should be indifferent about which of Tamien or Shoal should be lynched if they had to choose between those two options only.

So, if we were all unpossessed and acting independently to maximize our win conditions, the votes should be:

me: Tamien or Shoal

Shoal: michaelblume

Tamien: jalapeno_dude

That's in fact the same voting preference each of us would have if we *were* knowingly possessed!

If this were the preliminary voting I'd have no reason to change my vote (I'd calculate a (1+5/6+2/3)/3 = 83.3% chance of winning, the same as if I switched to voting for michaelblume and better than voting for myself). Shoal would calculate a (3/4+2/3+2/3)/3=69.4% chance of winning, better than voting for anyone other than michaelblume. Tamien would calculate a (1+2/3+3/4)=80.6% chance of winning, better than voting for michaelblume or Shoal/Tamien. So, I think this is stable. Whether I'm voting for Shoal or Tamien doesn't matter because as noted above neither of you should care if you or Tamien is lynched (2/3 chance either way). (If one of you *is* knowingly possessed then of course you'll care, though.)

I conclude that the votes above make the most sense for everyone regardless of whether they're mafia or not, and voting any way other than that would make your win condition decrease, again regardless of whether you're mafia or not. So we might as well just submit our votes right now and let THE COIN decide.