Six-Day-Old Spam

[jalapeno_dude]

My guess is that Kappa vigilante-killed Tulip. That's a shame.

[jalapeno_dude]

So, 7 people left:

anthusiasm: Aziel (role-declaring power)
jalapeno_dude: Rylaatin (MAFIA, leader, safeclaim Saasnil)
michaelblume: Hallai - attacked but not killed, Day 3
modrony: Leekath (tracker, hears where a single person goes each night)
Paradox: Ahin, makes potions, healing abilities
Shoal: Akar (MAFIA, safeclaim Amaia)
Tamien: Azef (MAFIA, investigator, safeclaim Ryll)

Who do we want to target?

[Shoal]

I guess if we target anthusiasm she'll do the role declaring thing. if we target modrony no one will buy it. if we target paradox that's kind of a reversal on yesterday when we liked paradox at the end of the day. if we target michael well there was pistachi0n looking desperate for michael to be more active or be replaced. meh. why didn't modrony track tulip we would have won?

we could wait to see who the town targets, if they don't target us.

for night actions I think the order is: paradox, modrony, anthusiasm, michael. because paradox is probably going to protect modrony until dies. modrony can hurt us. anthusiasm believes most of us are town so she's good to keep around, and michael is not playing.

[Shoal]

tamien and me are still in deep cover i think so no one should be suspicious of us publically because the two of us have the biggest chance of surviving to the end.

[Tamien]

maaaaan i wish the kills had not collided grumble grumble someone else should have targeted tulip grumble we should have targeted someone other than kappa grumble grumble

sorry, i don't have anything useful to add, i'm just frustrated. i should probably post in the main thread but i just have no idea what town!me thinks anymore

[Shoal]

you think kappa was earlier in the action resolution list than leekath? that would make sense. because modrony should have targetted tulip and died! grar!

dear future modrony: this is a compliment

[jalapeno_dude]

So the real reason I assigned the kill to myself last night was because I had concluded that Tulip was the demon based on the fact that she didn't post at all in this subforum during the entirety of Day 5. (And I didn't want to say that out loud in case saying her name summoned the demon or something like that, which is also why I made a point of saying we should go after townies rather than the demon.) Guess I was wrong about that. I'll have to remember to ask after the game what was really going on with that.

But yes, in retrospect we probably should have targeted modrony instead of kappa last night. Oops.

[Shoal]

paradox probably protected modrony last night.

[jalapeno_dude]

paradox probably protected modrony last night.

Yeah, I guess you're probably right.

[jalapeno_dude]

(Accidentally posted these in the Infidels thread first, derp.)

Should I pressure anthusiasm for lying about what Aestrix said? Could probably force her into a roleclaim, but I don't see how we can use that to our advantage...

______________________

Also, math time. There are 7 people left, 3 mafia, 4 town, but 1 of the town members is inactive. Let's assume that the 3 members of town correctly pick 1 of us to vote for, and correctly identify all of the mafia members based on the resulting vote. There's a 50% chance that they win the COINflip. In that case:

Start of Night 6: 6 people left, 2 mafia, 4 town, 1 town member inactive.
Successful night kill: 5 people left, 2 mafia, 3 town left, 1 town member inactive.

(Killing michaelblume instead of an active town member would cause us to be outnumbered for good, which is a loss if all mafia identities are known.)

To simplify, let's ignore the demon. Once again, there's a 2-2 tie in the vote. 50% chance that a mafia member is picked again. If there's a successful nightkill, and the next day there are 2 voters left, 1 town and 1 mafia.

So, as long as we successfully make the next 2 nightkills town has to win 3 COINflips in a row to win the game. Now mindgames come into play. If Paradox successfully protects someone, Town has won. I am not sure what the optimal strategy for Town is here, but my gut feeling is that it's for Paradox to both announce they're protecting one of the actual town members at random and then actually do so (since if it's predictable what they'll do, the Mafia can guarantee a successful kill). So we have a 1/2 (town loses first COINflip) + 1/6 (town wins first COINflip, successful nightkill (*2/3), town loses second COINflip) + 1/24 (town wins first COINflip, successful nightkill (*2/3), town wins second COINflip, successful nightkill (*1/2), town loses third COINflip) = 17/24 ~ 71% chance of winning, ignoring the demon, even if all of us are outed as mafia right now.

Now to work out the math INCLUDING the demon...