On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Not the kind with cardstock and pawns. Mostly play by post Mafia so far.

Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby jalapeno_dude » Tue May 19, 2015 5:38 pm

Tamien wrote:jalapeno_dude, nightkilling me is a bad idea if you are mafia.
I don't see why that's true. If I am in a position to nightkill you that means we killed either michaelblume or Shoal today and that whoever we killed was not the demon. In the latter case nightkilling you is guaranteed to win the game for the mafia (I just vote to kill michaelblume tomorrow). In the former case there is a 50-50 chance that I pick the correct person, and if I pick the wrong person there is then a 50-50 chance that the COIN kills the demon instead of me. In order to argue that nightkilling you would be the wrong thing to do you'd have to convince me that Shoal is more likely to be possessed than you are. You are welcome to try to do that, but you've already said that you're reading Shoal as innocent (i.e. Mafia) so this seems like it would be hard to do for you.
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby jalapeno_dude » Tue May 19, 2015 6:02 pm

If you really think Shoal is likely to be possessed, please make a case and I will consider voting Shoal (it will be a high bar since doing that is handing you the game if you're possessed).
I was reading Shoal as more suspicious than you, but this is probably due to my overall impressions of your respective posting styles rather than any evidence. In the absence of any compelling reason to update my cached supicions I probably would have ended up voting for Shoal/nightkilling them if michaelblume was lynched today.

I honestly don't understand why voting michaelblume is a bad plan ASSUMING that I think it's much more likely you're the demon than Shoal is. I have a hard time keeping track of enough of the math at a time to really compare that many options against each other, so maybe I'm just missing some straightforward math here.

If you really believe with 100% certainty that I am the demon, you're correct that it doesn't matter whether you vote for michaelblume or trigger a COINflip between me/you or Shoal/michaelblume (50% chance of winning either way). But if you believe there is ANY POSSIBILITY AT ALL that you're wrong and Shoal is the demon, you should be attempting to convince me to nightkill Shoal and you should also be voting to kill me so you can nightkill Shoal instead. If you know I am going to nightkill you, triggering a tie and voting to kill me leads to a 5/6 chance of winning, as opposed to just a 50% chance of winning if you vote for michaelblume. If you can convince me to nightkill Shoal instead, from your point of view we are guaranteed to win no matter who's killed today.
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby jalapeno_dude » Tue May 19, 2015 6:13 pm

Maybe Shoal is right that this just comes down to a difference in approaches. I am trying to be very clear about why I am voting the way I am (because it gives the mafia the best chance of winning). Again, from my point of view I am indifferent between voting to lynch michaelblume and triggering the COINflip. But after doing the math it also seems clear to me that you, Tamien, *shouldn't* be indifferent between them. The fact that you are happy to vote for michaelblume even after I noted this means that you are not acting in the way that will maximize your odds of winning the game. That is surprising and alarming to me. I do realize that if you are still Mafia you are acting this way because you distrust my math. But this in turn is upsetting to me because I have been trying (unsuccessfully, it seems) to make my math transparent. Obviously you have no way to verify this, but I won't *ever* lie about math. Make stupid mistakes, sure. Maybe present the math in a way that suggests a conclusion I want people to take, sure. But as you've already noted I'm upset that you're *not* voting for me. Apparently I am more upset when people distrust my math than when they distrust *me*. Hooray, I learned something about myself!
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby jalapeno_dude » Tue May 19, 2015 6:54 pm

Shoal wrote:Did you find anything about the demons will reading over the thread?
So I just did this (looking at PDV, MTC, and modrony's posts post-possession). This post from PDV and these two posts from modrony jumped out at me, but they're from a very large sample, so not sure they're worth taking particularly seriously. I am pretty confident that there are no restrictions on the actions possessed people can take or the wording they can use, etc. I am still unsure whether possessed people know they are possessed (though I consider those two posts I linked from modrony very weak evidence that they do), and I am similarly unsure whether their win conditions actually change (although the fact that none of the three were described as Town when they died suggests to me that they do). Very weak counter-evidence against the second conclusion comes from the post from PDV--I'm not sure why he would have said he was told to watch out for demons if he both knew he was possessed and had changed his win conditions. It makes sense if he knew he was possessed but was still pro-Town, I guess.
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby Tamien » Tue May 19, 2015 7:05 pm

I said nightkilling me is a bad idea because I am pretty confident that I am not possessed, not because of math and things :P

If it helps, I distrust you more than your math - I don't think you're lying about math, but you may be lying with math. I don't have the ability to keep all the outcomes you list in mind at once in order to compare them, and I've never been very good at probability-based maths, so I also worry that you're selectively omitting to post math that works against you, or framing the math you do post in deceptive ways, and I'm failing to notice it. If I'm failing to act in a way that will maximize my odds of winning the game, it is because I am bad at understanding odds.

I am like, probably not one of the best people to have gotten to this point in the game. Someone else who is better at working memory and attention and probability would probably be making much better choices than I am. In my last post I did my best to make my brain stick to the math and follow out as many outcomes as I could make it and when I did that it did end up with me feeling much more confident that I'm not missing something about your math and I should in fact vote for you. I should probably like, actually break out a pencil and paper and really work through it all, but brain.

ETA: Looking at those posts you linked; not sure what about them jumps out at you.
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby jalapeno_dude » Tue May 19, 2015 9:37 pm

Tamien wrote:ETA: Looking at those posts you linked; not sure what about them jumps out at you.

I'll bold the parts that jumped out at me, which I discussed in my above post:

PlainDealingVillain wrote:I don't think I'm the most suspicious now but there are two hours and I don't want to take any chances, so: I am REVENN. I have a power where death is involved so I am NOT SAYING IT NOW, but scum beware, killing me may have consequences.

I was also told to "watch out for demons". So that is part of why I suspected two deaths/night, and also suspected multiple factions, since demons are probably not putting anyone into witness protection.

Also, since I'm innocent and tau might not be, and those look like the choices: vote tau.

Don't understand why PDV would say that if he was knowingly possessed and anti-Town.

modrony wrote:@ Shoal yeah.That does seem weird to me. Probably means it's a clue. (preview edit: refers to the smiley)
It could mean that AB didn't have alignment checking but had some other kind of power?

@Tulip Ok. The promtness of that response might mean that it's genuine so you get another bump down the suspicion scale.

I don't know if I find FV suspicious anymore. Most of the arguments against them are intuitive and I dislike trusting those. (Though I will if I won't find anything better)
I was suspecting they were a demon before, but now that seems unlikely to be the case.
Let's see if I can find anything better in the little time we have left.

(Might be because they knew *they* were the demon)

modrony wrote:Will say that Paradox is unlikely to get my vote today.
The jalapeno-proof kinda doesn't work anymore even if he claims convincingly.

The demon theory is decreasing in likelihood as well, unless the demon needs town alive for some reason?

prev edit: Yeah, life does happen.
It may be a coincidence that you were silent just when I was seeing if you would be silent.
Sometimes test give false results. Doesn't mean we shouldn't do them and trust them when we do them.

Only a person who used a power on BSS on night 2 could have understood it. That was the intent anyway.
Did paradox do that?

Same thing.
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby Tamien » Wed May 20, 2015 2:28 am

I'm not getting a cohesive idea here. In fact, I'm getting kindof contradictory ideas about whether demons know they are possessed and whether demons are antitown.

I'm gonna go ahead and kick off voting in the main thread, since I'm not sure I'll manage to wake up and remember to check on the threads in time. Good luck all, here's hoping we get the demon.
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby Shoal » Wed May 20, 2015 2:38 am

good morning! not fully awake yet.
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby Tamien » Wed May 20, 2015 2:46 am

morning! i'm just on my way to bed, myself

~time zones~
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Re: On the seventh day, we SPAMMED

Postby Shoal » Wed May 20, 2015 2:50 am

sleep well! I hope we win this!
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