by jalapeno_dude » Tue May 12, 2015 3:44 pm
(Accidentally posted these in the Infidels thread first, derp.)
Should I pressure anthusiasm for lying about what Aestrix said? Could probably force her into a roleclaim, but I don't see how we can use that to our advantage...
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Also, math time. There are 7 people left, 3 mafia, 4 town, but 1 of the town members is inactive. Let's assume that the 3 members of town correctly pick 1 of us to vote for, and correctly identify all of the mafia members based on the resulting vote. There's a 50% chance that they win the COINflip. In that case:
Start of Night 6: 6 people left, 2 mafia, 4 town, 1 town member inactive.
Successful night kill: 5 people left, 2 mafia, 3 town left, 1 town member inactive.
(Killing michaelblume instead of an active town member would cause us to be outnumbered for good, which is a loss if all mafia identities are known.)
To simplify, let's ignore the demon. Once again, there's a 2-2 tie in the vote. 50% chance that a mafia member is picked again. If there's a successful nightkill, and the next day there are 2 voters left, 1 town and 1 mafia.
So, as long as we successfully make the next 2 nightkills town has to win 3 COINflips in a row to win the game. Now mindgames come into play. If Paradox successfully protects someone, Town has won. I am not sure what the optimal strategy for Town is here, but my gut feeling is that it's for Paradox to both announce they're protecting one of the actual town members at random and then actually do so (since if it's predictable what they'll do, the Mafia can guarantee a successful kill). So we have a 1/2 (town loses first COINflip) + 1/6 (town wins first COINflip, successful nightkill (*2/3), town loses second COINflip) + 1/24 (town wins first COINflip, successful nightkill (*2/3), town wins second COINflip, successful nightkill (*1/2), town loses third COINflip) = 17/24 ~ 71% chance of winning, ignoring the demon, even if all of us are outed as mafia right now.
Now to work out the math INCLUDING the demon...
Last edited by
jalapeno_dude on Tue May 12, 2015 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.