Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Not the kind with cardstock and pawns. Mostly play by post Mafia so far.

Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby BlueSkySprite » Mon May 04, 2015 10:45 am

Or today. I thought today was almost over but I guess it's not. @modrony, do you have any useful and convincing information? Almost nobody was voting for modrony when they role claimed and I still don't think there have been any particularly good arguments against people making list posts, as long as they can make up convincing alternatives?
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby modrony » Mon May 04, 2015 12:50 pm

I could tell you a name that didn't have a night action on a certain night.
The person in question should then be able to confirm that.
I do think the revelation costs less than a mislynching me.

I am worried that you guys would lynch me anyway tomorrow in which case it wouldn't serve much of a purpose.
I am not confident such weak evidence would keep me out of the hot water for long because my Mistake(*) keeps coming up.

I would vastly prefer if you guys could wait and give me a chance to catch something useful instead.

*Not opposing the 'everyone must have a list' mentality from day 2 like I should have.
I did think then that it would draw the killers to me but compared with what is now happening that would have been preferable.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby modrony » Mon May 04, 2015 1:02 pm

@Tulip
It may be that the demon-theory isn't true.
If we had full voters yesterday we would now know it isn't.
I do think it is at least worth it to check instead of instantly assuming that it isn't.

Putting the vote somewhere costs nothing if there aren't vote shenanigans going on.
If shenanigans are going on I do think that is information many of us would like to know.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby Tulip » Mon May 04, 2015 1:43 pm

Alright, I see what my mistake was. If I could transmit that explanation to Past Me, she probably would have voted, unless she was even more tired than I remember being. Just aimed it at someone like Kappa who would have never won the vote. I was missing the part where the goal was to see how many votes each person counted for, rather than to actually influence who died. It makes sense now, though. I'll definitely vote today, even if someone convinces me that neither of my current suspects are actually suspicious, for the sake of getting that info out there.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby BlueSkySprite » Mon May 04, 2015 6:12 pm

BlueSkySprite wrote:Image

Unofficial vote count:
Futurevision: 5 (kappa, MTC, Paradox, Shoal, Tamien)
Paradox: 1 (pistachi0n)
Tulip: 3 (BlueSkySprite, Alphabeta, modrony)
modrony: 2 (futurevision, Tulip)

Also, these seem to probably useful:
Morning 1
Evening 1
Morning 2
Evening 2
Morning 3
Evening 3
Morning 4
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby BlueSkySprite » Mon May 04, 2015 6:14 pm

I am worried that if the demons jump hosts, someone's total actions might not make a difference, just maybe a day's worth? Because I don't think they'd be able to jump hosts during the day, as they are scum. (Like, bad guys mostly get to kill people or change people's alignment at night?)
So I am making a summary of everything everyone has done since this morning, to decide who I find most suspicious today. I will post it when it is completed.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby BlueSkySprite » Mon May 04, 2015 7:30 pm

Okay, I did that! It took a while. (edited for formatting)
Summary of All Posts except Suspicion Boxes
Alphabeta: Said hi, expressed nervousness re: last night. Said modrony is probably Leekath, and asked if they had anything to report. Said he was sympathetic toward modrony, because he withheld information as Addy in the last game. Voted Tulip, because of revenge voting against modrony without a good explanation.

Anthusiasm: Said she has not been participating fully in mafia because she has had pneumonia for two weeks. Voted modrony on cached suspicions, and is unconvinced by arguments against futurevision, and thinks modrony's roleclaim is weird.

BlueSkySprite: Said michaelblume was probably a dragon, and that trying to kill him was a bad idea. Replied to Tulip, saying that voting for people other than michaelblume could have made a large difference because he might have been replaced at the last minute, leading to the death of whoever was next most voted. Voted futurevision. Noted confusion about futurevision's statement that they would be more suspicious if they voted michaelblume, speculated that maybe there are weird voting shenanigans, as has been speculated by many players, because Aestrix said to pay attention to votes, futurevision and michaelblume have not voted, and PDV was missing a vote. Noted confusion about modrony's roleclaim, and said it would have been better to argue against list posts than to role claim. Said she would kill futurevision because they are the most suspicious, but could be persuaded to change her mind. Asked if any dragons wanted to claim they were attacked last night. Said futurevision was now less suspicious, and that she had a guess about who futurevision could be and would not like to kill that person. Said that Addy's copy of Chris's power only worked at night, in relation to the Chainsaw discussion. Voted Tulip, because was her next most suspicious person after futurevision. Said she was concerned that someone's previous affiliations might not matter if they were possessed by a demon because demons jump, and they probably die after the demon jumps. Said that previous trust due to someone being a dragon could become void if they were later possessed. Said she agreed with Anthusiasm that modrony was being suspicious and would be more suspicious if they didn't provide useful information soon. Asked modrony if they had useful or convincing information. Repeated previous suspicion reasons. Said that demons would probably only make sense to jump at night, and said to start making these summaries to evaluate one day's worth of actions and words.

futurevision: Said that if michaelblume died, they would be more suspicious than if they didn't vote again, and promised to vote. To prove they have a vote and because modrony doesn't mind, Voted modrony. Said that if michaelblume dies, they will do something bad for town, and would rather the town kill them than michaelblume. Said michaelblume is a dragon, but if he wasn't, he could have been saved by a light, unless lights don't work during the day, like Chainsaw. Said that they made the comparison because of the similarity between a paralyzing night action and a saving night action.

jalapeno_dude: Said hi, expressed fear and confusion. Said that he was going to stop with the list post crusade, and that Alphabeta is probably town. Said that there is a bandwagon against futurevision, and he would go through the posts to find evidence other than cached suspicions. Said voting for third parties is usually ineffective. Said to Tamien that futurevision implied they would stop being town if michaelblume died, and he isn't sure how much he believes it yet. Said he doesn't want to vote for futurevision, although they are suspicious, because the explanation is too weak what he would expect from a mafia member. He said he finds modrony suspicious, but is pretty sure they are Leekath. He Voted Paradox, for pistachi0n's reasons, and finding Paradox's defense too panicky for one person's vote.

kappa: Said hi, expressed confusion re: last night. Said that dragons did not make sense as mafia. Said lying in list posts was counterproductive. Said they were having a bad brain day. Voted futurevision from cached suspicions. Said michaelblume wasn't proved to be town, just that he survived one attempted mob-kill, which could have happened for another reason. Said the comparison between Chainsaw and lights, and that people who make arguments on wild assumptions are often evil, so they are more suspicious of futurevision.

michaelblume: (said nothing)

modrony: Said hi, advocated caution. Said it was late, and that they would sleep before making a decision about what to say. Said that they would be willing to not kill futurevision for a day in order for futurevision to demonstrate that they have a vote, especially if they are the only one voting for that person, to avoid potential confusion about vote-vanishing. Promised to vote for futurevision if they abstained again. Said to Tulip that voting was to demonstrate a working vote, and that they approved of her forming suspicions. Said they don't think they are very valuable. Told jalapeno_dude that they started undercutting when they realized they were crushing anthusiasm, who was trying to make a list and put effort into it, and didn't want to be mean. Said that they thought that everyone understood that there should be a possibility of lies, for better infosec from scum. Told Shoal that not claiming would have been better, but taken more time. Said people should make judgment themselves about whether knowing what someone's power is posthumously would help the town or not. Said they weren't sure either way whether tau was town or scum, said they were suspicious of pistachi0n for confidence in lists and voting no-lynch on day 1. Promised not to do last-minute vote changing. Said they became less suspicious of pistachi0n when they discovered the tau wagon was originally pistachi0n's, rather than pistachi0n just starting the backslide. Said statement voting is not useful, and did not vote for their candidate because it was a lost cause, and trusted people said voting tau was a good idea. Voted futurevision. Said they would unvote if futurevision voted. After futurevision voted, Changed vote to Tulip. Said Tulip was smart enough to get the point of voting. Replied to BlueSkySprite that they could tell a name that didn't have a night action on a certain night, but is worried about being killed anyway. Asked for enough time to find at least one useful person. Replied to Tulip that if everyone voted, they would know for certain whether the demon vote-vanishing theory was true, and that it was best to find out if vote shenanigans are going on by watching everyone's votes.

MTC: Voted futurevision.

Paradox: Speculation: michaelblume survived because dragon, therefore probably town. Voted futurevision. Objected to pistachi0n's complaint because MTC made the same number of posts and voted at a similar time. Said they should not be more suspicious than MTC for the same action.

pistachi0n: Said that the 3 deaths night 2 and 0 deaths night 3 were odd. Said that she previously thought there were at least 2 scum factions, and if there is only one, maybe the target was protected. Said they started voting for tau because he was the previous highest suspect before futurevision. Said futurevision shouldn't go 3 days without voting. Said modrony said that tau was probably innocent, and then did last-minute vote changing again. Wanted to know why modrony jumped on a bandwagon started by someone they suspected, rather than PDV, said modrony only voted for tau because it was easy. Voted Paradox for silence and last-minute vote. Said they did not suspect MTC because he is probably Rithka, because wolffreak was confirmed as Mallyn. Said she is not voting to kill futurevision because if they are scum, their vote doesn't count, and if they are town and their vote doesn't count, they are still useful to town. She thinks that no scum would be oblivious enough to not voting being considered evil to go 3 days without voting. She still wants futurevision to vote.

Shoal: Speculation: Either there is a light, the mafia targeted a dragon, or Leekath is a dragon with a vampire form, or modrony is not Leekath. Speculated that because modrony thought more people should lie in list posts, modrony might be holding back some of findings. Agreed that modrony should sleep before making a big decision. Voted futurevision. Said that earlier voting would mean a better chance for successful third party lynchings.

Tamien: Said she just got back from camping. Said she doesn't understand why people retract votes on futurevision just because they put votes in bold with a vote, because Chelsead people could also do that without their votes having power. Wants to know what the suspicion with respect to futurevision's vote is, specifically. Voted futurevision, based on cached suspicions.

Tulip: Said that she didn't vote yesterday due to brainpower problems and not finding anyone suspicious. Said that she was still confused about why the voting was important, as it is no longer necessary to counter the no-lynch vote. Voted modrony. Said she was not voting modrony for revenge, but because they are suspicious, and thought it would be better to start a bandwagon against someone she thinks is probably evil, rather than jumping on a probably not evil bandwagon. Said that her explanation of her nonvoting is not great, but it is true. Replied to modrony that she had not realized the goal was to find out if weird voting things were going on, rather than to influence who died. Promised to vote today.


Summary of All Suspicion Boxes
Alphabeta: Made a suspicion post of jalapeno dude for continuing the list post encouragement, said michaelblume was probably a dragon, and some trust toward kappa.

Anthusiasm: (Posted publicly because it was late in the day.)

BlueSkySprite: Made a suspicion post of futurevision and Tulip for not voting, said michaelblume was probably a dragon, and not murderous. Said some suspicion for jalapeno_dude and kappa over feelings.

futurevision: Made a suspicion post of modrony, because they roleclaimed out of frustration without providing new information, without claiming anything but that list posts are bad.

jalapeno_dude: Made a suspicion post with confusion about modrony's roleclaim. Said the reasons to roleclaim were to stop from being mob-killed, but nobody was trying to kill them, or to share vital information with credibility. Said the intention of the claim was unclear and did not seem to successfully prevent future list posts. Said the weird light message was also suspicious, but overall still probably Leekath.

kappa: Made a suspicion post with cached suspicion of futurevision and suspicion towards non-voters.

michaelblume: (none)

modrony: Suspicious of futurevision, though less certain due to the lack of self defense. Suspicious of tulip for non-voting, not voting Aestrix, and not having opinions. Suspicious of pistachi0n for starting tau bandwagon. Suspicious of jalapeno_dude for list crusade. Weakly suspicious of anthusiasm for previously stated reasons, which I don't want to go find.

MTC: (none)

Paradox: Made a suspicion post of futurevision (mostly cached), and of jalapeno_dude from feelings.

pistachi0n: Made a suspicion post of Paradox for not saying much all day and voting near the end, not suspicious of michaelblume.

Shoal: Made a suspicion post. Still suspicious of futurevision, but glad they are participating again. Said modrony seemed to be asking the light to save them, and the light probably did because nobody died, but that if they hadn't that the light could have protected someone else. Said that it would have been better for modrony to just argue against list posts without claiming, and that if modrony is town, jalapeno_dude is also probably town, because in games they've seen, two people disagreeing are often both town. Said michaelblume is probably a dragon because there isn't an obvious good reason to prevent him from being lynched. Said they are not suspcious of Alphabeta, BlueSkySprite, MTC, or kappa.

Tamien: (posted publicly because it was late in the day)

Tulip: Made a suspicion post. Suspicious of modrony because they didn't publicize their concern about list posts until most people had already made one, made an unverifiable role claim. However, noted that modrony doesn't seem to be using this power and is probably either a weird vanilla townie or a killer. Also declared suspicion toward anthusiasm, to counteract natural tendency toward trusting people with cute icons.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby anthusiasm » Tue May 05, 2015 10:57 am

Thanks, BSS!
I have regained brainspace and I think I'm going to stick with my vote. I think killing futurevision is a bad idea and I don't find the arguments against Tulip convincing, because I know it can be difficult to know how best to vote when you can't decide who you want to kill. I'm still suspicious of Paradox. Its possible the things I find suspicious about Paradox might just be their play style, but the only other example of their play style I've had was last game, when they were a killer, so I don't know. I think modrony's roleclaim is very plausible but their actions have otherwise been suspicious, and correcting for my bias towards people who claim power roles, I think this is the best choice.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby BlueSkySprite » Tue May 05, 2015 11:44 am

Okay so from today's actions only, I think the most suspicious person is MTC, because they didn't make a suspicion post, then voted for futurevision without explanation, and haven't said or done anything since. Everyone is ignoring the possibility that they are evil because they are probably Rithka, but if they are being possessed by a demon, they could still be evil. Their actions read to me as trying to fly under the radar by voting without explanation or other participation, with the protection of their identity.
Please let me know if there's a flaw in this reasoning.
I vote to kill MTC.
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Re: Elcenia Mafia Game Thread

Postby modrony » Tue May 05, 2015 11:48 am

@ anthusiasum
Are you finding the roleclaim unbelieable or do you think I am an evil Leekath?
I can demonstrate the power if it helps thou I would very much prefer to have more time for that.

Or are you voting for me because you don't want futurevision lynched?

@BSS I think you forgot anthusiasum from the count.
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